To My Compatriots: A Message to Canadians from an Unvaccinated Perspective

“When you have something to say, silence is a lie—and tyranny feeds on lies”
(Peterson, 2018, p. 91).

To my compatriots,

When it comes to the COVID-19 vaccines, I think that it’s important to consider the pandemic as a whole, especially with respect to Canadian and American responses amidst the virus’s blatant politicisation (Hart et al., 2020).

For me, it feels as though we’ve been approaching the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen in an excessively careful way. According to Johns Hopkins University, Canada’s case-fatality risk is approximately 1.3% (2021). Similarly, the United States involves an approximate case-fatality risk of 1.4% (Johns Hopkins, 2021). Although we should absolutely strive to avoid unnecessary suffering and death, I believe that our policies regarding masks, social distancing, and lockdowns have been horribly misguided: it’s as though we’ve been riding a wagon of morality and crushing flowers along the way. While we were “staying home and staying safe,” small businesses were collapsing (Strain, 2020); domestic violence was going up (Bettinger-Lopez & Bro, 2020); drug overdoses were increasing (Asarnow & Chung, 2021); and loved ones were dying alone (Schloesser & Simon, 2021). In Ontario, for example, there was a 79% increase in opioid-related deaths between February and December of 2020 (Public Health Ontario, 2021a). More disturbingly, since the pandemic’s onset, instances of child abuse and attempted suicide have risen by significant numbers (Aziz, 2021). Additional data are needed to better ascertain the ramifications of social-distancing measures; however, the evidence strongly suggests that our efforts to control the virus have been horrifically and tragically botched.

So, back in January of 2020, when Canada’s Public Health Agency activated its Emergency Operations Centre (Canadian Public Health Association, 2021), how should we have proceeded against COVID-19? I don’t bloody know. It’s undeniable, however, that the disease has evolved into much more than a pandemic, precipitating social dilemmas and extending far beyond the realm of epidemiology. Merrill Singer argues that a syndemic occurs when a cluster of mutually enhancing health problems critically affects “the overall health status of a population” (1996, p. 99). A medical anthropologist, Singer elaborates, proposing that syndemics encompass “a perpetuating configuration of noxious social conditions” (1996, p. 99). Although the definition does not apply to phenomena within a global context (Ogawa et al., 2019), the term can certainly describe our national crises, as attempts to “stop the spread” have ultimately aggravated issues of addiction and socioeconomic misery. 

I acknowledge that Canada’s relatively low case-fatality risk reflects some of the interventions against the disease’s virulence. Certain reports project that in the absence of mitigation strategies, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7 billion infections and 40 million deaths worldwide (Walker et al., 2020). Out of 7.9 billion people across the planet (Worldometer, 2021), 40 million hypothetical fatalities amount to roughly 0.51%: (4.0 × 10⁷/7.9 × 10⁹)(100%) = 0.506%. If the same value can pertain to a worst-case scenario in Canada, without intervention, our country of approximately 38 million would have seen 192,280 lives lost in 2020: x/3.8 × 10⁷ = 0.506/100 ⇒ x = 192,280. As of today, over 30,000 Canadians have died from COVID-19 (Government of Canada, 2021c). Although a figure exceeding 192,000 would constitute a > 540% increase in total deaths, I wonder if such an outcome would be less detrimental to our country than is the syndemic into which we’ve descended. Instead of imposing restrictions, provoking social division, and compounding issues of poverty and fear, maybe we should have simply advised caution and collectively crossed our fingers.

Last year, a chemistry professor introduced me to Karl Popper’s Falsification Principle (1959). If I’ve interpreted the notion correctly, Popper’s perspective suggests that a scientific theory can never be proved—it can only be disproved; therefore, the most reliable theories are ones that have survived multiple attempts to disprove them. As SARS-CoV-2 represents a novel virus and mRNA vaccines epitomise new technology, I believe that falsifiability can apply to issues concerning both COVID-19 and moral obligation amidst Canada’s vaccination campaign. No one can say for certain that the current vaccine options won’t have long-term, pernicious effects: my Microbiology textbook discusses new technology, stating that “it’s nearly impossible to prove that something is entirely safe under all conceivable conditions” (Tortora et al., 2019, p. 262). Accordingly, I believe that the prospect of vaccine mandates and demonisation of unvaccinated Canadians are thoroughly unjust situations. The process of effectively shaming or forcing someone into receiving a shot completely disrespects the Falsification Principle, as it ultimately fails to concede that nothing is absolute.

Essentially, it is inappropriate to set rules as though one way is undeniably the best direction: a person should always be open to the possibility that he or she is abysmally wrong. In that regard, when leaders, medical professionals, and columnists chastise unvaccinated Canadians for “not trusting the science” (Bains, 2021), the platitude registers more like propaganda than a representation of science’s actual magnitude in the pursuit of objective truth. For over 1,000 years, popular opinion accepted the geocentric model, imagining Earth as the centre of the Universe (Shively, 1946). The concept was based upon the best science of the time (Gingerich, 2002), and detractors were often ridiculed and ostracised: Galileo, for instance, was censored for promoting the heliocentric system, placed under a life sentence of house arrest (Gingerich, 2011). Although the example is arguably outdated, it quintessentially illustrates the consequences of stubborn convictions. Scientific theories are never immutable, especially as ulterior motives often accompany attempts to solidify ideological standards. The unfortunate relationship between science and commercialism has heavily influenced societal progress, manipulating both government and medicine while establishing inextricable knots of fallacy and fact.

For decades, the tobacco industry actively lied to much of the world (Chapman, 2004). Smokers were falsely reassured, diverted from the addictive and carcinogenic effects of cigarettes (Chapman, 2004). Comparatively, the story of thalidomide demonstrates the necessity of postmarketing surveillance: the drug was prescribed for morning sickness, and pregnant mothers across Europe, Australasia, and Canada sought comfort in the sedative (Coombes, 2016). > 2,000 babies died from the antiemetic; at least 10,000 children were born with disabilities (Coombes, 2016). The CBC reports a greater number of adverse events: 24,000 congenital malformations and over 120,000 miscarriages (Schwartz, 2017). Articles concerning Pfizer and Moderna have dismissed the thalidomide catastrophe as anti-vaxx rhetoric (Dupuy, 2020). Although the scandal does not pertain entirely to the FDA’s approval process for COVID-19 vaccines, it buttresses the notion that pharmaceuticals can inflict unexpected harm. The FDA’s website lists a slew of recent recalls: precisely 300 entries span between August of 2017 and December of last year (2021). Cardiovascular damages associated with formerly available drugs are in no way proof of Pfizer and Moderna dangers (ProCon, 2021); however, they render imperative the practice of questioning healthcare options, exemplifying the possibility of debilitating side effects.

We know that the Pfizer, Janssen, Moderna, and AstraZeneca formulae have all been linked to serious complications. In May of last year, blood clots prompted Alberta and Ontario to shelve first doses of AstraZeneca’s COVISHIELD (Williams & Martell, 2021). The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has likewise encountered scrutiny. In the States, it was paused after six women developed the TTS clotting disorder: thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (Katella, 2021). The mRNA options of Pfizer and Moderna have reportedly caused comparable emergencies, each implicit in cases of myo- and pericarditis (CDC, 2021b). Over 1 million accounts of post-vaccination alarm have been submitted to the US’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (CDC, n.d.). Of the reports between December 14, 2020 and December 20 of last year, 10,688 involved death (CDC, 2021b). As the States administered over 496 million shots during that interval (CDC, 2021b), the mortality rate amounts to an infinitesimal < 0.0022%: (10,688/4.96 × 10⁸)(100%) = 0.00215%. Every credible summary shows that both lethal reactions and nonlethal TTS constitute incredibly rare occurrences (Pelley, 2021). Nevertheless, as the CBC recognises, the risk of death remains very real (Pelley, 2021). A fatal hazard exists on either side of the dichotomy: the choice between receiving the vaccine and relying principally on the immune system. Canadians have every right to make their own, informed decisions. If a person feels more comfortable with the body’s natural defences, that’s his or her indelible prerogative.

Accordingly, it boils my blood when moral posturing dehumanises our citizens for avoiding the jab. Editors, politicians, and academics have recklessly contributed to the unvaccinated label of pariah (Kampf, 2021). The Globe and Mail has declared COVID-19 a “pandemic of the unvaccinated,” parroting sanctimonious attitudes, which spectacularly fail to appreciate legitimate concerns (The Editorial Board, 2021). More distressingly, the Toronto Star has advocated vaccine mandates across the board (Star Editorial Board, 2021). An article from October of last year praises standardised credentials, effectively celebrating unemployment among noncompliant workers (Star Editorial Board, 2021). Our Deputy Prime Minister has accused unvaccinated citizens of sabotaging Canada’s economy (Star Editorial Board, 2021). Meanwhile, Trudeau’s government wasted 612 million dollars on a futile election, exposing Canadians to congested voting queues while ignoring the virus’s fourth-wave volume (Nickel, 2021).

So, who is to blame for COVID-19’s persistence? Are the unvaccinated responsible for relaxing capacity limits, creating superspreader events at restaurants and resorts (Loreto, 2021)? Did jobless nonconformists vacation in the tropics, disregarding their own injunctions against international travel (Cecco, 2021)? Were anti-vaxxers at the forefront of 2019 health cuts, depriving multiple regions of hospital beds and nurses (Butler, 2019; Crowe, 2019; Mertz, 2019)? Plenty of criticism can go around; however, when the government singles out a specific demographic, it accomplishes nothing but segregation, insinuating suspicion and animosity among peers. Recent data clarify that unvaccinated Canadians comprise roughly 80% of hospitalisations (Government of Canada, 2021c). The value is particularly notable, as the vaccinated to unvaccinated ratio among citizens of 12 years and up is approximately 9:1 for at least one dose (Government of Canada, 2021a): 30,139,395/x = 90.01/100 ⇒ x = 33,484,496.17; unvaccinated = 33,484,496.17 − 30,139,395 ≈ 3,345,101. As the vaccinated population tallies far fewer instances of hospitalisation and death, it’s ostensibly reasonable to point fingers at vaccine-hesitant neighbours. Realistically, however, the potential to contract and transmit the disease remains ubiquitous in Canada’s future, as several publications predict that the virus will soon coincide with seasonal flu, becoming endemically present (CBC, 2021; Phillips, 2021).

Since December of 2020, when Canada’s vaccine rollout began (Forani, 2020), 31,280,780 residents have received first doses, embodying 81.79% of the population (Government of Canada, 2021a). The values suggest that out of roughly 38,245,238 people, only 6,964,458 remain completely unvaccinated: 18.21% of the country. 31,280,780/x = 81.79/100 ⇒ x ≈ 38,245,238; unvaccinated = 38,245,238 − 31,280,780 = 6,964,458. At this point, with over 12 months elapsing between first-available shots and now, it seems safe to assume that every eligible Canadian has had the chance for inoculation (Tasker, 2020). As daily cases of COVID-19 continue to exceed averages of 20,000, it’s likely that in the very near future, each Canadian resident will be one of three things: vaccinated, naturally immune, or dead. As we’ve established, the third possibility remains extremely unlikely for most people (Johns Hopkins, 2021). Furthermore, numerous studies have shown that naturally acquired antibodies, T cells, and B cells are considerably more effective against COVID-19 than are the best vaccines (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2021b; Makary, 2021; Wadman, 2021). In Israel, for example, comparisons found that naturally immune test groups were 27 times less likely to experience infection than were vaccinated individuals (Makary, 2021). A plethora of reputable agencies has contradicted the idea of superior natural immunity (CDC, 2021a; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2021b; Nebraska Medicine, 2021). Considering the discrepancy, the studies are collectively inconclusive, and additional data are needed to determine previous-infection sufficiency. It’s mathematically evident, however, that asymptomatic anti-vaxxers are hardly a rational fear. In general, the odds of contracting the virus and succumbing to its brunt are extraordinarily low, and as mutations continue to circulate, it’s quite possible that the pathogen will subside, reaffirming the redundancy of panic (Ries, 2021; Brown, 2022).

Between the insult to personal liberty and dwindling threat of death, everything appears to indicate that Canada’s vaccine passports and mandates are utterly ridiculous. Fewer than 7 million Canadians have yet to receive a shot: the aforementioned 18.21%. Part of that statistic involves ineligible children; therefore, it’s understandable that some families would embrace a solution of QR codes and regulations (Hristova, 2021). Nevertheless, COVID-19’s youth mortality rate maintains remarkably low percentages: as of December 30, 2021, infections among Canadians of ages 0–19 have totalled 457,698 (Government of Canada, 2021c). Of that population, 20 have perished: 11 between the ages of 0 and 11, nine between the ages of 12 and 19 (Government of Canada, 2021c). Consolidated, the deaths amount to < 0.0044%, offering hopeful odds to Canadians within that demographic: (20/457,698)(100%) = 0.00437%. It’s too early to know exactly what the virus’s long-term implications for Canada’s youth might involve: in the United States, between 0.00% and 0.02% of all child Covid-19 cases have resulted in death (American Academy of Pediatrics, 2021). Some projections suspect that such fatalities will compare subordinately to those of influenza (Fox, 2021). Other reports insist that SARS-CoV-2 bears the superior threat (Radcliff, 2020), while comparable arguments anticipate almost identically destructive pathogens (King, 2021). Regardless of the differences, every reliable source concurs that deaths among children from COVID-19 are exceedingly improbable (Ledford, 2021; NCMD Programme, 2021). Therefore, the opposition to controversies such as academic closures and compulsory masks is equitable, especially as mounting evidence screams of grievous effects on child mental health (Anderssen, 2021; Fore, 2021).

As with the adult injections, the COVID-19 paediatric vaccines pose noteworthy repercussions. Studies from June of last year report that for every 1 million second doses, 67 result in heart inflammation for boys between the ages of 12 and 17 (Jenco, 2021): (67/10⁶)(100%) = 0.0067%. For girls of the same age group, nine of 1 million second doses result in the condition (Jenco, 2021): (9/10⁶)(100%) = 0.0009%. A more recent report from the CDC addresses myocarditis among children of ages 5–11. Out of 7,141,428 doses, eight led to inflammation of the heart: four cases among boys, the other half among girls. Altogether, the confirmed cases total a relatively negligible rate of 0.00011%: (8/7,141,428)(100%) = 0.000112%. In November of last year, Ontario published more extensively focused information on both myo- and pericarditis (Public Health Ontario, 2021b). For every 100,000 doses, 16 incidents of cardiac inflammation affected ages 12–19: (16/10⁵)(100%) = 0.016%; ages 20–29 experienced 27.3 cases for the same denominator: 0.0273%; similar numbers were encountered by ages 30–49, while Canadians of 80 years and up involved 78.1 instances of inflammation per 100,000 vaccine recipients (Public Health Ontario, 2021b): 0.0781%. Ultimately, the data show that both myo- and pericarditis are insignificantly alarming. Anxious parents can rest assured that Pfizer- and Moderna-induced cardiac diseases are profoundly rare. Nevertheless, it remains true that post-vaccination horror stories have occurred (BBC, 2021a; Edler et al., 2021; Impelli, 2021), and every family has the right to both know and weigh the risks, rendering mandates incompatible with Canadian autonomy.

Last month, Allan Richarz, a privacy lawyer from Toronto, delivered an eloquent opinion piece to the CBC (2021). If you need any convincing of the precipitous trajectory of government impositions, I highly encourage you to read the article. Richarz articulates the predicament a lot more intelligently than I can, portraying the likelihood of vaccination certificates becoming permanent forms of control (2021). The warning may seem conspiratorial, but it’s undeniable that a pattern of absurdity and deception has unfolded over the past two years. Masks were introduced by our provinces between July and November of 2020, several months after the first wave of disease (Cousins & MacLeod, 2020). In the States, both cloth and surgical coverings were initially described as ineffective (Reuters Staff, 2020); the announcement has since been deemed a noble lie: a ploy to ensure enough PPE for frontliners (Cooper, 2021). An entire year after the pandemic’s beginning, our government necessitated quarantine hotels (Bogart, 2021). Canadians were compelled to pay thousands for substandard conditions (Miller, 2021). Fines for noncompliance involved penalties of > $6,000 (Harris, 2021). In Ontario, the Roadmap to Reopen was never satisfied: the final step depicted a goal of vaccinated adults surpassing 80%, 25% for two jabs (McGrath, 2021). When Canada achieved such numbers last fall (Our World in Data, 2022), Ontario’s restrictions persisted. Yesterday, the province reverted to Step Two (Office of the Premier, 2022).

I’m not denying the virus’s existence, but something doesn’t feel right. Originally, the mission to vaccinate adults was adequate (Fletcher, 2021). Then, we hopelessly chased after herd immunity by targeting children (The Editorial Board, 2021). Now, amidst herd immunity’s elusiveness, a shot’s being developed for toddlers and infants (Reuters, 2022). Perhaps getting ages 0–4 fully vaccinated will be the next required milestone before a return to normal. It’s reasonable to think that if 100% of the country were vaccinated, the madness would end. However, the pattern suggests otherwise, especially as we entertain boosters and the prospect of a fourth dose (Heller & Lubell, 2022). For whatever reason, it seems as though our leaders are needlessly sustaining restrictions by exploiting viral variants. Since the pandemic’s genesis, we’ve gone from the L strain to Alpha → Beta → Gamma → Delta → Omicron (Government of Canada, 2021b). What’s next: the Pi variant? Maybe it’ll be Rho. We skipped Xi, afterall (Chaya, 2021). Recent headlines presage the arrival of flurona: a purportedly terrifying hybrid of COVID-19 and flu (Haq, 2022). With mutations emerging indefinitely, we cannot continue this approach. Thousands of Canadians have lost jobs amidst the vaccine ultimatums (Scherer, 2021). Unprecedented numbers of insolvency have occurred, finances eroded and livelihoods destroyed (Evans, 2020). At McMaster Children’s Hospital, suicide attempts tripled over a 4-month period, filling emergency beds with self-harm and overdose patients (Brown, 2021). I’m not saying that we should do nothing, but for a virus capable of terminating 0.51% of our country, our response has been excessive, especially with so much collateral damage. Before it’s too late, we must wake up from this pandemic of fear and renounce the syndemic to which our leaders have subjected us.

Believe it or not, I don’t delve deeply into conspiracy theories. Accordingly, I’m not going to explore the lab leak’s plausibility or China’s suspicious relationship with the WHO (Griffiths, 2020). I’m not going to emphasise mass formation psychosis or validate reports of ivermectin suppression (Cerullo, 2021; Lee, 2022). Apparently, prominent scientists have resigned over COVID-19 disputes, but I don’t have the sources to dissect those narratives properly (Howard, 2021; Rodrigues, 2021). With so much information and misinformation, it’s impossible to fully unravel the mess. Truth and fiction will remain enigmatic, asserting the urgency of ongoing debate. Some studies show that super immunity’s obtainable (Jones, 2021), while others suggest that vaccination after COVID-19 could supplement the risk of adverse events (Debes et al., 2021). Ultimately, I believe that the vaccines are safe: serious reactions are consistently infrequent. Nevertheless, I think that the likelihood of corruption directing policy in some regard is astronomically high. The concern may sound like paranoia, but large-scale deceptions have been documented in the past. In 2020, The Passionate Eye released an article: “Recycling was a lie—a big lie—to sell more plastic, industry experts say” (CBC Docs). More applicably, several agencies explain how pharmaceutical giants intentionally fuelled America’s opioid crisis, saturating vulnerable communities with addictive substances (BBC, 2021b). Is Canada involved in a malicious plot to divide our citizens, facilitating systemic classism by neglecting the needy and favouring the rich (Jackson, 2021)? I have no idea. But amidst all the hypocrisy and uncertainty, with government and medicine inexorably intertwined, I don’t feel comfortable trusting anything. For me, the risk of death is low. More importantly, I do not identify as a threat to other people: almost 80% of the country’s fully vaccinated; the danger to children is next to 0.0%. Until I feel more confident in our nation’s direction, I’m in no rush to receive a shot. The anti-vaxx scapegoating must end at once: it’s a mask for our government’s incompetence.

If you’ve made it this far, thank you for considering my thoughts. A lot more could be said about waning immunity, travel bans, and long COVID’s manifestations. This essay’s gone on long enough, and more important things deserve our attention. Nevertheless, I hope that this has been an accessible explanation of my unvaccinated position. Nothing was meant to sound condescending: I’m coming from a place of empathy. The planet needs considerable help, and if we don’t put aside our differences, we’ll soon succumb to the chaos. So, what do we do about COVID-19? Earlier, I said that I don’t bloody know. I still don’t. However, looking at our country’s devastation—the domestic assaults, bankruptcies, and overdoses—it’s evident that the government’s approach has been incendiary, smoking out much more than the pathogen. As soon as we realised that SARS-CoV-2 portended a global death toll of < 1%, perhaps we should’ve abolished masks, eliminated restrictions, and pumped money into healthcare. I don’t know what that process would look like logistically. However, over $600 million was spent on the election. > $89 billion was committed to CERB and EI; > $118 billion was distributed to private businesses, non-profits, and charitable organisations (CBC News, 2020). Maybe Canada could have largely discontinued the relief money and allocated funds primarily among provinces, accommodating ventilators, hospital beds, and contracts for doctors and nurses. I realise that every death represents a person; therefore, I hope that my perspective doesn’t read callously. For me, it’s Solomonic: a balance of life and despair. To navigate this tragedy, we need each other’s support. If we jeopardise independence, accepting tyranny’s semblance of safety, we’ll forsake our country’s greatness and find much worse than disease.

Figure 1 shows Canada’s observed and projected opioid-related deaths for January 2016 to June 2022.

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